Greece’s greenhouse gas emissions Odyssey: Will the green targets be met in the face of modern challenges?
Charis Vasilopoulos
Every year, we witness the vast symptoms of climate change in our lives. We are experiencing seasonal disruptions with higher temperatures, extreme droughts and heavy rainfall. The polar ice sheets are melting, and the ocean continues to absorb larger amounts of heat and CO2 emissions, which jeopardize marine life.
In Greece, recent natural disasters - such as the dramatic wildfires in the summer of 2023, and the catastrophic flood that followed in Thessaly the same year - have demonstrated increasing risks and impacts associated with climate change. The scientific community has connected the intensity of Storm Daniel in Thessaly, which caused 17 deaths and estimated € 2.3 bn in direct damages, to global warming. Researchers also warn that similar extreme weather events are likely to occur more frequently and with greater severity. Wildfires are no exception. In 2023, the wildfires across Greece burned a total area of 175 759 ha and caused 24 fatalities.
The main questions under debate are how prepared we are to handle the consequences of climate change (adaptation) and whether we have begun to mitigate it by addressing the root causes (mitigation). Nevertheless, climate change should not be used as an excuse, particularly after catastrophic weather events, to mask deficiencies in preparedness, planning, and coordination. According to a WWF report on the lessons learned from the Evros wildfire, these are areas that need improvement.
The main root cause of climate change is the high greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, which leads to an increase in global surface temperature. Countries can follow two paths to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The first one is to reduce the sources of emissions, and the second one is to increase the emission-absorption capacity. Best practice is to control both sides of the equilibrium to complete green targets.
Greece has reduced its domestic net greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases) by 32.3% compared to EU-27 39,5% from 1990 to 2024. Mediocre projections aim for 59.2% net GHG reduction in 2030 and 95.5% in 2050 based on 1990 levels. Most recent data show that the highest GHG-emitting sector was energy supply (29%), followed by domestic transport (25%) and industry (19%). In contrast, land and forests removed from the air 6% of the total GHG emissions.
Three main events have affected Greece's total emissions: the economic recession, the COVID pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. Generally, economic activity, urbanization, and energy technology mix play a significant role in total CO2 emissions variation in Greece.
The largest reduction in GHG emissions is in the energy supply sector in 2024 compared to 1990. The main key-driven factors are the economic recession, the increase of RES and natural gas in the energy mixture and the gradual closure of lignite-fired plants. Although lignite is a national strategic source of energy, one of the national energy and climate plan’s priorities is the decarbonization by closing lignite plants until 2028. Furthermore, part of the plan is to strengthen RES market share and to interconnect islands with the mainland grid until 2029, which will replace the carbon-intensive use of diesel and mazut. The development of energy storage systems will also help stabilize the supply from renewable energy sources (RES) and enhance system flexibility by storing surplus energy for later consumption.
Domestic transportation is another major GHG producer, and road transport is the main source of emissions within this sector. Although there has been progress in anti-pollution technology in vehicle engines, the vehicle fleet has increased, and the average age of Greek cars and trucks is higher than the European average. That’s why the two main goals of the climate action plan are the expansion of biofuels and the use of electric power in transport.
The same direction is being followed within the industrial sector. The use of RES-generated electric power in industry is encouraged, as rising emission allowance costs can make carbon-intensive industrial products increasingly uncompetitive. In addition, hard-to-abate industrial sectors (refineries and cement industry) will be supported with carbon capture and storage projects and alternative fuel applications.
A decrease in the use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers and the animal population resulted in fewer GHG emissions within the agriculture sector. The future green goals will be achieved by rational use of fertilizers, organic farming practices and improving animal diets. Also, eco-schemes will contribute to achieving sustainability in this area.
Despite the progress achieved in other sectors, emissions from waste management were higher in 2024 than in 1990. Land-based solid waste disposal is the largest contributor (biodegradable waste). Concerning Municipal Solid Waste treatment little work has been done as landfill rate remains stable at 80% and the recycling rate at 17%. Despite the fact that total waste generation has declined due to the phase-out of lignite plants, MSW has increased resulting in more emissions. The waste management framework focuses on waste separation at source, expanding recycling units and the waste-to-energy approach.
GHG emissions from the residential and commercial sectors decreased, mainly due to the increased use of natural gas and biomass. Almost six out of ten buildings have been constructed before 1981; therefore, there is a necessity to renovate and replace old, energy-intensive appliances and systems with environmentally friendly ones.
Land and forests act as a counterbalance to emissions, and their capacity has almost doubled since 1990. Extended wildfires and natural disturbances have a negative effect on this sector. The increased trend throughout the years is attributed to reduced felling and sustainable forest management. The sustainability within this field is projected to continue, and the main actions involve reforestation and land reclamation of lignite mines and quarries.
Answering the question in the title, the green future of Greece looks promising, as environmental targets and the National Climate Law have been established to set the path to climate neutrality. The driving force is the National Recovery and Resilience Fund, which supports the climate goals and green transition. However, the green investment gap poses a threat with critical economic and social effects. The most vulnerable are highly exposed to the consequences of climate change, and potential damages from extreme weather events may pressure public finances. In terms of capital absorption, it seems that Greece will fully disburse the EU funding package. As of June 2026, 76% of the acquired Greece’s grants and loans had been disbursed to final recipients. In this context, it is essential to ensure the traceability and transparency of financial flows so that the state can evaluate the real green and social impact of each completed landmark. Administrative expertise and efficient monitoring are part of the solution to combat greenwashing and measure the real social and climate benefit.
Sources
Argüeso, D., Marcos, M. & Amores, A. Storm Daniel fueled by anomalously high sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean. npj Clim Atmos Sci 7, 307 (2024).
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00872-2Average age of the EU vehicle fleet, by country (9 September 2024)
https://www.acea.auto/figure/average-age-of-eu-vehicle-fleet-by-country/Bougiatioti, A.; Gialesakis, N.; Sarafidis, Y.; Gini, M.I.; Mermigkas, M.; Kalkavouras, P.; Mirasgedis, S.; Ramonet, M.; Narbaud, C.; Lopez, M.; et al. Sources and Variability of Greenhouse Gases over Greece. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 1288.
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15111288EEA greenhouse gas - European Environment Agency (Published 16 Apr 2025 - Modified 29 May 2026) https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/maps-and-charts/greenhouse-gases-viewer-data-viewers?activeTab=570bee2d-1316-48cf-adde-4b640f92119b
EEA greenhouse gas projections - European Environment Agency (Published 31 Oct 2025)
https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/maps-and-charts/eea-greenhouse-gas-projections-data-viewer-data-viewersEuropean Commission (2024), Document 52024PC0325, Proposal for a DECISION OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL on the mobilization of the European Union Solidarity Fund to provide assistance to Italy, Slovenia, Austria, Greece and France relating to six natural disasters occurred in 2023, COM/2024/325 final.
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52024PC0325&qid=1767045793797
Flaounas, E., Dafis, S., Davolio, S., Faranda, D., Ferrarin, C., Hartmuth, K., Hochman, A., Koutroulis, A., Khodayar, S., Miglietta, M. M., Pantillon, F., Patlakas, P., Sprenger, M., and Thurnherr, I.: Dynamics, predictability, impacts and climate change considerations of the catastrophic Mediterranean Storm Daniel (2023), Weather Clim.
Dynam. 6, 1515–1538, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1515-2025, 2025.HVA (October 2023) FIRST REPORT REGARDING POST-DISASTER REMEDIATION OF 2023 THESSALY FLOODING, ID#: 20249B01
Jones, M. W., Kelley, D. I., Burton, C. A., Di Giuseppe, F., Barbosa, M. L. F., Brambleby, E., Hartley, A. J., Lombardi, A., Mataveli, G., McNorton, J. R., Spuler, F. R., Wessel, J. B., Abatzoglou, J. T., Anderson, L. O., Andela, N., Archibald, S., Armenteras, D., Burke, E., Carmenta, R., Chuvieco, E., Clarke, H., Doerr, S. H., Fernandes, P. M., Giglio, L., Hamilton, D. S., Hantson, S., Harris, S., Jain, P., Kolden, C. A., Kurvits, T., Lampe, S., Meier, S., New, S., Parrington, M., Perron, M. M. G., Qu, Y., Ribeiro, N. S., Saharjo, B. H., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Shuman, J. K., Tanpipat, V., van der Werf, G. R., Veraverbeke, S., and Xanthopoulos, G.: State of Wildfires 2023–2024, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3601–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, 2024.
National Inventory Report of Greece for Greenhouse and Other Gases for the Years 1990-2024 (April 2026) – Hellenic Republic Ministry of Environment and Energy
https://unfccc.int/documents/656305Note on the Greek Economy (23 October 2026) – Economic Analysis and Research Department – Bank of Greece
https://www.bankofgreece.gr/Publications/Note_on_the_Greek_economy_23_10_2026.pdf
San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Durrant, T., Boca, R., Maianti, P., Liberta`, G., Jacome Felix Oom, D., Branco, A., De Rigo, D., Suarez-Moreno, M., Ferrari, D., Roglia, E., Scionti, N., Broglia, M., Onida, M., Tistan, A. and Loffler, P., Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2023, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2024, doi:10.2760/8027062, JRC139704
Stavrakas, V., Tzani, D., Papantonis, D., & Flamos, A. (2022). Energy transition in the residential sector in Greece: Investing in natural gas or in electrification?
https://teeslab.unipi.gr/energy-transition-in-the-residential-sector-in-greece-is-the-current-planning-for-natural-gas-working-or-should-we-invest-in-electrification/Tranoulidis, A.; Farmaki, P. Long-Run Relationships Between Economic Growth, Urbanization, Renewable Energy, and CO2 Emissions in Greece. Energies 2026, 19, 907. https://doi.org/10.3390/en19040907
United Nations - Climate Action Cause and Effects of Climate Change
https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causes-effects-climate-changeWaste Generation and Treatment / 2022 - Hellenic Statistical Authority
https://www.statistics.gr/en/statistics/-/publication/SOP06/Waste management country profile - Greece – EEA (March 2025)
https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/topics/in-depth/waste-and-recycling/municipal-and-packaging-waste-management-country-profiles-2025/gr-municipal-waste-factsheet.pdf/@@download/fileWorld Weather Attribution. (2023, September 19). Interplay of climate change-exacerbated rainfall, exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region.
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/interplay-of-climate-change-exacerbated-rainfall-exposure-and-vulnerability-led-to-widespread-impacts-in-the-mediterranean-region/WWF Greece – Learning from Evros Fire (2024) – Executive Summary – Evaluation report on the forest fire-fighting mechanism and proposals for its improvement
https://www.wwf.gr/en/knowledge_hub/library/?14270416/Executive-Summary-of-the-study-Lessons-learned-from-the-Evros-Fire-2023Αποτελέσματα απογραφής κτιρίων 2021 - ΕΛΣΤΑΤ https://www.statistics.gr/2021-kt
Εθνικό Σχέδιο για την Ενέργεια και το Κλίμα – Αναθεωρημένη Έκδοση (Αύγουστος 2024) Αθήνα. https://ypen.gov.gr/energeia/esek/
Εθνικό Σχέδιο Διαχείρισης Αποβλήτων 2020-2030
https://www.elinyae.gr/ethniki-nomothesia/pys-39-tis-31820202020-fek-185a-2992020
Παρατηρητήριο Ταμείου Ανάκαμψης & Ανθεκτικότητας «Ελλάδα 2.0»: Χρηματικές ροές, αναθεωρήσεις & δημόσια ιχνηλασιμότητα | Απολογισμός (Σεπτέμβριος 2026) #1η Έκδοση. ΕΝΑ Ινστιτούτο Εναλλακτικών Πολιτικών
Χ Περιβάλλον, Ενέργεια και Κλιματική Αλλαγή - Έκθεση του Διοικητή για το έτος 2025 – Τράπεζα της Ελλάδος
